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Using the factors above, traders tend to look of boosting demand and labor productivity through a handful of key fundamental data points such as: Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. No worries, we created this guide just for you.
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Trading Platforms Discussion of Trading Platforms. Commercial Content If you're selling anything related to Forex EAs, strategies, etc then this section is for you. Proven system needs k by Bob Yesterday, Forex Brokers Discuss Forex Brokers. Forex Market Analysis Market analysis and forecasting from our experts to help you make the right trading decisions. The real yield, therefore, equates the return investors in fixed income would receive to the return an investor would receive who invests in an inflation-indexed bond.
Another reason to keep an eye on fixed income or credit markets is that this is where crises typically show up first. The great financial crisis was also known as the credit crises, and the logic makes sense. Bond investors get seniority preference of any cash flows a business generates, so a company unable to pay bondholders also known as defaulting tends to be the first emergence of trouble in financial markets.
A key thing within bond markets that should be looked at is the yield curve or yield spreads. Specifically in focus is the inverting, and potential inversion of the US yield curve. An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury Notes US sovereign bonds have a lower yield or higher price than their shorter-lived counterparts , typically the 2-year note.
The US yield curve has become the flattest 2 - year yield rising faster than year yield since Businesses and economies as a collection of businesses are about growth. Economies look to do the same but through a combination of industries and macro factors that help investors see if an economy is attracting or repelling money from abroad.
Naturally, a strong inflow of capital tends to lead to local currency appreciation while a stronger outflow of capital, whatever the cause, tends to lead local currency depreciation. Capital markets and their attractiveness to international investors have long been a key factor in whether not money i s flow ing in or out of an economy. Another key tenet of economic growth is the health of the labor market as well as technological progress in an economy. Demand that drives economic growth is often seen through the lens of increased labor demand being increasingly productive, typically through technology, with sufficient capital used to support the labor force.
International investors and central bankers tend to look at both the actual and potential growth of an economy. If actual growth is lagging potential growth, central bankers and sometimes politicians get to work. The goal is to get the gap between the potential growth rate of an economy to close between the actual growth rate of the economy.
Using the factors above, traders tend to look of boosting demand and labor productivity through a handful of key fundamental data points such as: In short, in a consumer-driven market like the US and soon to be China, employment data often adds up to more than the sum of its parts. In short, employment data in the US shows how aggressively companies are filling roles, which shows economic growth, quit rate, which shows economic confidence or confidence in the ability to find a new job, and the recently all-important Average Hourly Earnings or AHE.
Average Hourly Earnings has been under considerable scrutiny lately as economists expected the economic growth seen in commodities and other assets to translate to higher wages that would, in turn, boost inflation.
Seemingly, that had failed to pass the test, until Q4 when AHE in the US jumped and is currently at the highest levels since The recent rise is bringing more hope to those seeking inflation as proof that the economy is on a sustainable path higher like equity and commodity investors.
A Current Account is a measure of how much a country is exporting relative to how much it is importing. A country that imports more than it exports or buys more than it produces and sells abroad is going to have a current account deficit.
Such a situation makes an economy a net debtor abroad, and as you can imagine, makes the credit quality of the economy crucial. A Current Account surplus occurs when a country exports more than it imports, making it a net creditor to the global economy. China and Japan are textbook examples as are other smaller Emerging Market economies like Myanmar or India. A current account surplus does mean that an economy is reliant on healthy global demand to keep the economy humming along, but it makes the economy much less susceptible to aggressive swings in funding markets.
Heading into the Brexit vote of June , Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney warned that a key reason why he had a hard time seeing the Brexit as a viable path forward was the significant current account deficit in the UK. In , the US has given traders a new cause for concern with an unusual name for most. The problem is called the twin-deficit. However, when you look at the CA from a currency adjusted point of view as the Dollar Index has fallen aggressively, the current account deficit becomes less manageable.
The US Dollar Index has fallen as much as This is the second factor making it a twin reading. Given the aggressive fiscal stimulus in and beyond planned by the current administration.
The US looks to be increasingly reliant on foreign funds at a time when the USD is near 3-year lows, and the expected borrowing needs are only expected to rise.
As you can imagine, if new data comes out that the US Current Account deficit widens and the Treasury demands for borrowing increase, it could put significant pressure on the US. Another key market that echoes the current account dynamics is the Terms Of Trade. The terms of trade are indexed to show how much exports can purchase of the imports that an economy is likely to produce and likely purchase.
Export-dependent economies like Australia will have their Terms of Trade scrutinized more closely than other economies with less export focus. A key way to look at what is expected over the next week or month, a time frame in focus for most FX traders is through options volatility.
A key marker of the options pricing model is that of the market-derived imputes, only one is implied , and that is volatility. In other words, volatility is a plug figure that helps to explain why an option is priced as is and helps to explain to traders what is expected over the time the options contract is in play.
All things being equal, higher expected volatility leads to a higher options price while lower implied or expected volatility leads to a lower options price. For traders looking for sharp market moves, implied volatility can be a godsend of info of knowing where to expect juice in the market that they can capitalize on with a trade.
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